The Great Talent
Consolidation

Transfer portal, NIL, and landmark NCAA rulings vs. March Madness upsets. 1985–2026, 12 data cards. Every chart: blue = pre-portal, teal = portal-only (2018–19), amber = portal+NIL (2021+).

Card 1 · Upsets

Total tournament upsets by year

Wins by a team seeded 5+ lines below opponent (NCAA definition). Blue = pre-portal. Teal = portal-only (2018–19, upsets UP). Amber = portal+NIL era (2021+, wild variance). Key insight: upsets increased after the portal — it's the NIL/Alston combo that changed things.
All-time avg
8.2
per tournament
2025
4
tied all-time low
2021 & 2022
14
all-time high (each)
Portal only avg
12.0
2018–19 (2 tourneys)
Portal+NIL avg
9.4
2021–25 (5 tourneys)
Pre-portal (1985–2017) Portal only (2018–19) Portal + NIL (2021+)
Source: NCAA.com official records + Wikipedia upset database. 2020 excluded (cancelled). 2026* = first round only (3 upsets through 3/20: High Point 12 over Wisconsin 5, VCU 11 over UNC 6, Texas 11 over BYU 6).
Card 2 · Upsets + rulings overlay

Total upsets with key court cases & rule changes

Same upset data, now annotated with the 6 most impactful rulings. The vertical lines show when each rule took effect relative to tournament upset counts.
Pre-portal Portal only (2018–19) Portal + NIL (2021+) Rule changes
Annotations: O'Bannon (2015 enforcement), Transfer Portal launch (Oct 2018), One-time transfer (Apr 2021), Alston 9-0 ruling (Jun 2021), NIL begins (Jul 2021), House settlement approved (Jun 2025). Upset data same as Card 1.
Card 3 · Deep upsets (verified)

Deep upsets: seeds 13–16 first-round wins

Verified against NCAA.com matchup-by-matchup records. The screenshot from @TVSportsUpdates was mostly accurate — corrections noted below. Years with ZERO deep upsets highlighted.
13-seed wins 14-seed wins 15-seed wins 16-seed wins
Verified vs. screenshot: The tweet's data is broadly correct. Key confirmations: 2008 had Siena (13) + San Diego (13) = 2 wins. 2012 had Lehigh (15) + Norfolk St (15) + Ohio (13) = 3 wins. 2013 had FGCU (15) + Harvard (14) + La Salle (13) = 3 wins. 2016 had MTSU (15) + SFA (14) + Austin (14) + Hawaii (13) = should be 4 wins. 2018: UMBC (16) + Marshall (13) + Buffalo (13) = 3 wins. 2021 was the peak: Oral Roberts (15) + Abilene Christian (14) + Ohio (13) + N. Texas (13) = 4 wins. Zero deep upsets confirmed in: 2017, 2025, and 2026 (through 3/20).
Source: NCAA.com individual matchup histories (13v4, 14v3, 15v2, 16v1). All-time records: 13-seeds 33-127 (.206), 14-seeds 23-141 (.140), 15-seeds 11-149 (.069), 16-seeds 2-158 (.013). 2026 = R64 complete through 3/20.
Card 4 · Conference gap

Non-power-conference teams in the Sweet 16

The portal/NIL talent drain visualized. 2025: first all-power-conference Sweet 16 since 1975. Non-power at-large bids dropped to just 4 in both 2025 and 2026.
Pre-portal Portal only (2018–19) Portal + NIL (2021+)
CBS Sports: "The transfer portal has seemingly caused a chasm between high-majors and most schools outside those five leagues." In 2025, the SEC had a record 14 tournament bids. The Big Ten went 8-0 in R1 — a conference record.
Source: NCAA.com bracket archives. Power = ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, SEC (+ Pac-12 historically). Non-power at-large bids: 2022=7, 2023=5, 2024=8, 2025=4, 2026=4 (per CBS Sports cheat sheet).
Card 5 · Access

Non-power at-large bids: shrinking

Fewer at-larges to non-power conferences = fewer mid-majors even getting in the door. The SEC had 14 bids in 2025 alone.
Pre-portal Portal only (2018–19) Portal + NIL (2021+)
Source: NCAA Selection Committee announcements via CBS Sports. Non-power = outside ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Big East, SEC. Includes WCC, MWC, AAC, A-10, etc.
Card 6 · Cinderella depth

Double-digit seeds reaching Sweet 16+

2025: only ONE double-digit seed in Sweet 16 — (10)Arkansas, from the SEC. Zero non-power-conference teams made it, first time since 1975. Only 3 years in 40 have had one or fewer (1995, 2007, 2025).
Sweet 16 Elite 8 Final Four
Source: NCAA.com bracket archives 2008-2025. Double-digit = seeds 10-16.
Card 7 · Analytics

KenPom efficiency gap: 1-seeds vs. 12-seeds

Avg KenPom AdjEM (expected point margin per 100 possessions vs avg D-I team) at tournament start. Wider gap = harder for Cinderellas. Gap widening since portal/NIL.
Avg 1-seed AdjEM Avg 12-seed AdjEM
Why it matters: 23 of 24 national champs ranked top-25 AdjEM. But mid-major Cinderellas that made Sweet 16 averaged ~55th in AdjEM — analytically strong. The portal drains these players to power programs before March, widening the gap at the top.
Source: KenPom.com pre-tournament AdjEM ratings (averages of all four 1-seeds and 12-seeds per year). KenPom methodology updated 2024 from Pythagorean to additive scale; historical values approximate on current scale. FOX Sports Research for champion/Cinderella KenPom trends.
Card 8 · MBB transfers vs. upsets

Men's basketball portal entries vs. tournament upsets

MBB-specific transfer portal entries (bars) overlaid with tournament upset count (line). Transfers exploded after NIL in 2021 — and 70% of power-conference portal entrants can't find a new school or transfer down, stripping mid-majors of talent.
MBB transfers 2019
957
portal year 1
MBB transfers 2025
2,320
+142% in 6 years
Fall down or out
70%
of P5 entrants transfer down or find no school
Portal only era Portal + NIL era Tournament upsets (right axis)
The talent funnel: "If we tried to run our program the way a power conference school with a couple million bucks and an NIL collective does, it wouldn't work." — SD State coach Aaron Johnston. Norfolk State lost its MEAC Player of the Year to transfer in back-to-back seasons. Dalton Knecht went Northern Colorado → Tennessee → SEC Player of the Year.
Source: Front Office Sports / Verbal Commits MBB portal counts (2019: 957, 2020: 967, 2021: 1,653, 2022: 1,650, 2023: 1,724, 2024: 2,083, 2025: 2,320). 70% stat from AD Advisors / Timark Partners study (Apr 2025). Upset counts from NCAA.com.
Card 9 · Coach mobility

D-I MBB coaching changes + mid-major poaching

Total D-I men's basketball head coaching changes per year. The NIL/portal era hasn't just moved players — it's accelerated coach movement too. Mid-major coaches who build winners get hired away by power programs, destabilizing the programs that produce Cinderellas.
2025–26 changes
62
D-I head coaches
Power conf flips
14
in P5 alone (2025)
Mid→Power hires
8+
per year since 2021
Pre-portal Portal only Portal + NIL
The coaching pipeline drains mid-majors too: 2025 alone: VCU's Odom → Virginia, McNeese's Wade → NC State, Drake's McCollum → Iowa, Colorado St's Medved → Minnesota, High Point's Huss → Creighton. When a mid-major coach builds a program, a power school hires them away — and the Cinderella factory resets to zero. Players then follow coaches into the portal.
Source: ESPN coaching change trackers (2015–2026), CBS Sports carousel reporting, HoopDirt.com annual trackers. D-I total counts approximate from ESPN/CBS annual lists. Power-conference flip count (14 in 2025) from CBS Sports. Notable mid→power hires verified from ESPN.
Card 10 · The classic upset

12-vs-5 upset wins per year

The most famous March Madness upset matchup. 35.6% all-time rate. Remarkably stable even in portal/NIL era — this matchup still delivers. In 2026, High Point (12) beat Wisconsin (5).
Pre-portal Portal only (2018–19) Portal + NIL (2021+) Zero = no 12-seed wins
Source: NCAA.com "History of 5 seeds vs 12 seeds." 57 total 12-seed wins in 160 matchups = 35.63%. Years with zero: 1988, 2000, 2007, 2015, 2018, 2023. 2026: High Point 83, Wisconsin 82.
Card 11 · The three eras

Average upsets per tournament by era

Splitting the data into three eras reveals the real pattern. The portal alone didn't kill upsets — it actually boosted them. It's the NIL + revenue era (2023–25) where upsets collapse. The early NIL chaos (2021–22) produced record highs before the money settled in.
Pre-portal avg
7.5
1985–2017 (33 tourneys)
Portal only avg
12.0
2018–19 (2 tourneys)
Early NIL avg
14.0
2021–22 (record chaos)
Mature NIL avg
7.3
2023–25 (money settles)
Pre-portal Portal only Early NIL (2021–22) Mature NIL (2023–25)
The story in 4 acts: (1) Pre-portal: stable ~7.5 upsets/yr for 33 years. (2) Portal launches: upsets jump to 12/yr — more player movement creates chaos that HELPS underdogs. (3) NIL year 1-2: record 14 upsets as money flows chaotically and rosters churn. (4) NIL matures: collectives organize, top programs stockpile talent, upsets crash to 7.3 — and 2025 hits the all-time low of 4.
Source: NCAA.com upset data. Pre-portal: 247 upsets in 33 tournaments = 7.48/yr. Portal only (2018-19): 24 in 2 = 12.0. Early NIL (2021-22): 28 in 2 = 14.0. Mature NIL (2023-25): 22 in 3 = 7.33.
Card 12 · Timeline infographic

The rules that changed everything

Every major rule change, court ruling, and NCAA policy shift affecting player mobility, payment, and competitive balance. Major inflection points in bold dots.
1973
Freshman eligibility begins
First-year players on varsity. Recruiting changes overnight.
Eligibility
1985
64-team tournament
Modern bracket created. First 12-over-5 upset happens immediately.
Tournament
1990
Transfer sit-out rule formalized
D-I transfers must sit out one full year. Limits mobility for decades.
Transfer
1998
Graduate transfer exception
Graduated players transfer and play immediately. First crack.
Transfer
2005
NBA one-and-done rule
Must be 19+ and 1yr from HS. Elite talent concentrated at top programs.
Recruiting
2015
O'Bannon v. NCAA (9th Circuit)
Antitrust violation on athlete likeness. Full cost-of-attendance mandated.
Legal
Oct 2018
Transfer portal launches
Centralized database. 1,561 FBS transfers in first cycle.
Portal
Sep 2019
California Fair Pay to Play Act
First state NIL law. NCAA's hand forced.
NIL
2020
COVID extra eligibility year
All athletes get additional year. "Super seniors" warp rosters for years.
Eligibility
Apr 2021
One-time transfer rule
Transfer once without sitting out. Numbers nearly double.
Portal
Jun 2021
NCAA v. Alston (Supreme Court 9-0)
Education benefit limits = antitrust violation. Kavanaugh signals broader rights.
Legal
Jul 2021
NIL era begins
Athletes earn from name/image/likeness. Collectives form overnight.
NIL
2023
Signing limit eliminated
Unlimited transfers per school. 20+ transfers/offseason = normal.
Transfer
Jan 2024
Unlimited transfers cleared by court
Judge blocks multi-transfer sit-out. All transfers immediately eligible.
Legal
May 2024
House v. NCAA ($2.8B settlement)
$20.5M/school/yr revenue sharing. Roster limits (15 for MBB). 75% to football, 15% to MBB.
Revenue
Jul 2025
Revenue sharing begins
House settlement takes effect. Schools directly pay athletes. Cap rises 4%/yr → ~$33M by 2035.
Revenue
Mar 2025
2025: 4 upsets (all-time low tie)
Zero 13-16 wins. All-power Sweet 16 — first since 1975. Big Ten 8-0 R1.
Tournament
Mar 2026
2026: First revenue-sharing tournament
High Point (12) beats Wisconsin (5). VCU (11) beats UNC (6). Duke survives Siena (16) by 6. No 13-16 seed R1 wins through 3/20.
Tournament
Source: NCAA rules archives, Supreme Court filings (Alston 594 U.S. 69), House settlement docs (approved Jun 6 2025), ESPN, 247Sports, Congressional Research Service.

About this data

Upset definition: NCAA official — win by team seeded 5+ lines below opponent, all rounds.
KenPom data: Pre-tournament AdjEM averages from kenpom.com. Scale changed in 2024; pre-2024 values are approximations on current methodology.
Transfer portal: FBS scholarship player counts from 247Sports annual tracking. MBB-specific estimates from NCAA compliance reports.
2026 tournament: Partial data — R64 complete through March 20. Updated as games play.
Color code: Blue = pre-portal (1985–2017). Teal = portal-only (2018–2019, upsets INCREASED). Amber = portal+NIL (2021+, upsets diverge wildly). 3-era coloring on all charts.